MONTHLY NEWSLETTER: JANUARY, 2026 by TAI Collaborative

Dear colleagues,

Coming out of last week’s Davos gathering, attention focused on Mark Carney’s speech, and minds focused on the future of multilateralism (more on that below), but there was much less discussion, and even less progress, on international development. That will not surprise Suleiman A., who laments the international community tendency for “an overproduction of process and the underproduction of outcomes” and incentives that reward visibility over transformation.

Far from the Alps, the Roundtable was glad to participate in Wilton Park and UNDP’s Nairobi convening “Agenda 2063 in a post-ODA world: African agency for socio-economic transformation”, which brought together African policymakers, regional institutions, and private-sector leaders for candid, non-attributable discussion on practical pathways for delivery in a tightening fiscal and geopolitical environment. A consistent throughline emerged — in this post-ODA moment, the constraint is shifting from finding capital to turning capital into investable pathways. For those who want more detail, see our provisional summary note.

For much more news, analysis, and crystal ball gazing on the future of development, read on!

Warmly,
Nicole, Mariam & Michael

Roundtable Next Steps

Strong participation in this month’s Leadership Call affirmed concrete next steps based on analysis of the past year’s “future of development” responses. These include an offer to support coordination among future aid conversations in the United States, quick injection of funds for more diverse and Global South-led visioning of future development, and more proactive sharing of investment data. Reach out to learn more via roundtablesecretariat@taicollaborative.org.

What’s Emerging Across the Field: 4 Insights on the 4 Shifts

Shift 1: Building a New Era of Development Cooperation

One relevant update from Davos was the latest from the Global Future Council on Reimagining Aid, asking, “Can we assemble a new set of principles and concepts for new, reimagined forms of international cooperation?” Just as we have framed the changes needed around Four Shifts, so the Council members call for shifts — in this case, by specific development actors. For philanthropy, they urge moving from an “elite concentration” of resources on niche interests to becoming a “system R&D lab” taking high-risk, long-term bets.

In a surprise to many, the United States Congress passed an appropriations bill with $50 billion for aid and diplomacy, but there are still lots of questions, as Erin Collinson, Jocilyn Estes, and Julia Brownell note.

New analysis from Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, Sara Pantuliano, and Bright Simons explores how global development can adopt a new compass for the future, one where the total volume of development finance expands through private capital, domestic mobilization, and creative instruments, while the nature of that system fundamentally transforms towards equity, speed, and networked impact.

Nine bilateral donors are working on rethinking development cooperation. Emerging threads include engaging in triangular cooperation, leveraging networks and relationships within multilateral organizations, and exploring ways to engage with private finance. A key idea? Partnership, not solo action, is becoming central to navigating today’s complex development challenges.

Shift 2: Remodeling Development Finance Flows

The Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development explores how outcomes-based financing (OBF) mechanisms have matured from experimental pilots into a mainstream tool. Authors highlight both the promise of OBF to improve effectiveness and accountability and the enabling conditions needed to make it work at scale within the broader development finance architecture.

Justin Sandefur argues we’ve lost sight of a critical driver of sustainable growth: export-oriented, job-creating industries. He calls for development finance institutions to “rediscover export discipline” to reshape investment toward sectors that actually build competitive economies.

New research from Christian Aid and Debt Justice highlights a growing paradox at the heart of global development: while many African nations struggle under spiralling debt burdens, private investors are poised to make billions in profit from lending to countries at high risk of debt distress.

The Asian Development Bank explains how local governments struggle to access long-term finance to deliver essential infrastructure and services. Authors argue that tapping sustainable bond markets, strengthening local financial markets, and building institutional capacity will be essential to bridging investment gaps where it matters most.

Shift 3: Strengthening Locally-Led Development

Too often, debates on development finance stop at national budgets and reform strategies, leaving unanswered the question of what actually happens where money meets delivery. An explainer from Development Asia introduces SAFMA—a new assessment tool designed to strengthen “last-mile” public finance by focusing on the financial management capacity of the agencies and local institutions responsible for frontline services.

Ken Opalo’s Africa in 2026 offers a clear-eyed look at the year ahead for the continent, highlighting how robust growth prospects coexist with persistent structural challenges. He argues that while many African economies are set to register strong nominal expansion, converting that into jobs, diversification, and resilient development will hinge on how states manage debt, political transitions, geopolitical shifts, natural resources, and governance constraints. Similarly, African Business highlights how the continent has become central to global economic shifts. Can policymakers take advantage?

On Think Tanks founder Enrique Mendizabal examines shifting aid and power dynamics in international development. Mendizabal argues that recent aid cuts, however damaging, expose unacceptable dependencies and create an opportunity to rethink responsibility and dignity.

Ashish Kothari takes stock of a world marked by overlapping crises—deepening inequality, ecological breakdown, corporate impunity, and the hollowing out of global institutions - but still finds potential for “radical alternatives”, urging us to build around grassroots movements.

Shift 4: Improving Philanthropic Collaboration

This post from Participatory Grantmaking Community turns a practical issue into a meaningful discussion: how to say “participatory grantmaking” in different languages and cultural contexts. What sounds like semantics quickly reveals deeper questions about how communities interpret and own funding processes, the limits of English-centric philanthropy, and the creative work needed to express shared power, decision-making and money in ways that resonate locally.

Marième Daff, executive director at Firelight Foundation, reflects on findings from EPIC-Africa's report "From Fragility to Fortitude." While funding cuts threaten organizational survival, the report also points to a clear blueprint: flexible capital, stronger ecosystems, co-created partnerships, and African-led innovation. Inherently African, community-driven philanthropy offers the most resilient path forward.

In a fresh data breakdown, Devex shows how philanthropic dollars for development have flowed over the past five years — with $57.3 billion from the Gates Foundation and peers between 2019 and 2023 shaping development priorities in key low- and middle-income countries. Africa has been the biggest regional recipient, and among individual countries, Kenya, Ethiopia, and India emerge as the top destinations. Check also TAI´s dashboard to explore trends, comparing flows across regions, sectors, and funders for governance-related funding over this same period.

This Alliance Magazine commentary challenges the notion that philanthropy can or should stay neutral in politically charged contexts, arguing that avoiding politics for the sake of “safety” often means ignoring the very structural dynamics that shape who gets help and who doesn’t. Farkhanda Zahoor suggests that pretending distance from politics actually limits impact and reinforces the status quo.

Figure of the Month

A new global study by researchers from Aalto University and partners offers the first three-decade, subnational mapping of income inequality across 151 countries, revealing trends that national averages hide. While income inequality has increased for about half of the world’s population, the data also spotlight regional “bright spots”: areas where targeted policies on health, education, social transfers, and infrastructure have measurably narrowed gaps.

With a Funder's Lens: Development Cooperation in a Fractured Era: Coalitions of the Willing and Able

The road ahead for development cooperation will demand both realism and optimism from the philanthropic sector – realism about the fractured state of global affairs, and optimism that through creativity and coalition-building, solutions can be crafted.

This year’s Global Solidarity Report from Global Nation shows that global solidarity has been sliding for over a decade and now sits at alarmingly low levels—well below what’s needed to tackle shared threats like climate change, pandemics, and inequality.  In this scenario, Canada’s Mark Carney argues that many multilateral institutions and rules are eroding, and progress now comes through minilateralism – regional and thematic alliances that strive to “fill the gap” left by paralyzed global institutions. Canada, for example, is pursuing plurilateral deals across multiple blocs, aiming to be a bridge between regions. Forums such as the African Union, ASEAN, or Mercosur are looking to forge workable rules on trade, health, and climate, even as bodies like the WTO or UN struggle. Monica Herz and Selina Ho argue that regional organizations can step up and restore some faith in multilateralism.

Raj Kumar is another to call on us to recognize new realities, starting with accepting that “the old aid model is dead.” Looking to the year ahead, the Devex Editor-In-Chief suggests that philanthropy’s time has come and that the billionaire class can and should give more. Philanthropy could become “the primary steward of purpose.”

Kumar argues that the next model of development will need to be “tech-enabled, locally led, and market-driven.” That resonates with the analysis of leading economists Gordan Hanson, Dani Rodrik and Rohan Sandhu, who argue that the next global economic transformation will be local and built around “effective state action, led by subnational governments.” By staying grounded in communities, yet connected to a global outlook, donors can help reinforce that transformation.

Events of Interest

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